Economy and Trends

Argentinian Financial Mess – Can It Survive?

It was almost exactly a year ago to the day that Argentinian President Mauricio Macri told his people that he will raise taxes and cut government spending in an attempt to keep solvent with $50 billion in IMF loans. A reformer like Trump, Marci is a businessman, with knowledge of how the financial markets operate. Fast-forward to today. Macri issued ...

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Economic Indicators: Slowdown Coming?

Investors and economists have been showing concern about the economy for some time now. Different signs have been cropping up here and there, and that helped pressure the Fed into making a rate cut at the end of July. One particular signal that I have been tracking for almost a year now is the 2/10 yield curve. It inverted recently ...

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September – The Worst Month for Stocks

Stocks were extremely volatile in August as the market got whipsawed by various developments throughout the month. The S&P gained or lost over 1% in 11 of the 21 trading days during the month and in the end, the index dropped 1.8% on the month. Now we enter September with investors nervous and the ninth month is historically the worst ...

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Silicon Valley is building a Chinese style Social Credit System

I warned you this could happen, but you said no, it was too Orwellian, and could only metastasize in authoritarian societies. It doesn’t have to be invisible cameras in your home that watch your every move, or your television set looking back at you. The beauty of this surveillance is that you don’t have a clue. In China, scoring citizens’ ...

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Global Tensions and Recession Fears Send Gold to a 6-year High While Bullish Sentiment Soars

I wrote a bullish piece on gold for Seeking Alpha last September 6. My main argument for the bullish posture was the commitment of traders report. If you’re not familiar with the commitment of traders report, it is released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission each Friday and it shows the net positions of three different groups—large speculators, small speculators, ...

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Positive Surprises for Retailers

The retail sector has been lagging the overall market by a wide margin over the past year. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT) is down over 20% while the S&P 500 is up just over 2% in the past year. Despite the lagging performance by the retail sector, we have seen some big moves to the upside by some ...

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The Trump White House Speaks on the Economy

The Trump Presidency has been anything but predictable. In the last few weeks, we have seen President Trump announce new tariffs on Chinese goods and then backtrack and cancel some through the holidays. Of course, the backtracking came after the stock market reacted in a very negative fashion. In the last few days, we have seen different statements from the ...

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Shrinkflation is a new term in Retail Economics

Is it just me, or are the peaks on my bar of Toblerone chocolate growing conspicuously less numerous? Wait, hold on. I’m pretty sure that roll of Charmin toilet paper used to have 500 single-ply sheets. Now it has only 451. What’s going on here? This is known in the world of retail economics as “Shrinkflation.” No, you are not ...

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