Economy and Trends

The Landscape has Changed for the Fed’s Rate Path

Over the years I have heard many different sources, from economics professors to Fed Chairmen, say that the Federal Reserve doesn’t pay attention to the stock market when it comes to deciding rate policy. I think we all know better than that. When the Fed stepped in and started lowering rates at the end of 2007, you can bet that ...

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What Small Business wants from the new Congress

The mid-term elections are now behind us, and small businesses across America march on. Politics and regulation, among other things, play such a large role in the life of an entrepreneurial venture. Policies legislated can have a big impact on macroeconomic issues like job creation, wages, and production. The upcoming 116th United States Congress will need to address the concerns ...

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Holiday Spend to Hit $1 Trillion with Trump Bump

Retailers are expected to enjoy a robust holiday season with total consumer spending to exceed $1 trillion. According to Matthew Shay, National Retail Federation (NRF) President and CEO, “Thanks to a healthy economy and strong consumer confidence, we believe that this holiday season will continue to reflect the growth we’ve seen over the past year.” Despite the recent downturn in ...

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HORIST: Millennials embrace socialism … at their own risk

This past midterm election was not only a win for the Democratic Party, but, more ominously, a gain for the dangerous and discredited doctrine of socialism. It has been widely reported that socialism has had its greatest appeal among the younger generation – the Millennials. If that is true, they will suffer the consequences to a much greater degree than ...

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Fewer International Students Coming to U.S. Universities

You would be hard pressed if you strolled down Locus Walk at the University of Pennsylvania or along the commons at Yale’s New Haven, Conn. Campus, to believe that the number of international students at American universities was on the decline. Ivy League schools like Penn and Yale have no shortage of foreign applicants. As a matter of fact, Harvard ...

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The Next Bear Market May Be the Most Anticipated in History

I have been trumpeting a cautious tone for most of 2018 with concerns about the stock market and whether or not the bull market would continue. I have laid out a number of indicators that support my cautious stance—the jump in the yield on 10-year treasuries, consumer confidence being too high, investor sentiment being too optimistic, etc. If you haven’t ...

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Federal Reserve Criticized by Wall Street on Balance Sheet Unwind

Federal Reserve

Whether it is President Trump or the powers that be on Wall Street, the Federal Reserve is taking constant heat over interest rates, its balance sheet, and just about everything else it does. Trump has tweeted many times of his disdain for the Fed’s desire to raise rates and potentially cool the economic growth. He has also questioned Chairman Powell ...

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Don’t Get Too Excited About the Post-Midterm Jump

The overall market jumped sharply higher on Wednesday after the results of the midterm election results were known. Some analysts were speculating that the jump was due to the Republicans retaining control of the Senate while others were speculating it is because the Democrats took control of the House. Personally, I think the reason for the big jump was simply ...

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October’s Downturn in Stocks Suggests We Are in Risk-Off Mode

October was an ugly month for stock indices around the world and the domestic ones were no exception. The four main U.S. indices all dropped significantly, and eight of the 10 main sectors moved lower. The few sectors and asset classes that moved higher in October are all considered “defensive” investments. Looking at the indices first, we see that the ...

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