Author Archives: Rick Pendergraft

Fed Chairman Powell Testifies Before Congress for First Time as Chair

For the first time since being named Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell appeared before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. The appearance before the committee did seem to spark a small rally in stocks that afternoon, but his comments were much more important than the light reaction we saw. Mr. Powell was thanked by members of the committee for his ...

Read More »

Banking Industry Not Meeting Expectations So Far in 2018

Heading into 2018, expectations for the banking industry were running high and many analysts were predicting that it would be a great year for bank stocks. You had the tax cuts to help the bottom line. Interest rates were rising which would allow the banks to increase the spread between lending rates and deposit rates. And there was an expectation ...

Read More »

Life, Poker, and Investing: It’s All About Probabilities

Over the last few nights, I have been watching the World Series of Poker on ESPN. I enjoy playing poker and have for a long time. My grandfather first taught me how to play when I was in kindergarten. He was visiting us from Virginia and when I got home around noon from morning kindergarten, it was just the two ...

Read More »

New Recession Indicator Trips Alarm

Monday night I heard of a recession indicator that I had never heard of before and it just triggered the first recession alarm. The indicator is the spread between the Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Index Option Adjusted Spread and the Fed Funds rate. Let me state that I learned of this indicator late Monday night/early Tuesday ...

Read More »

Has the Emerging Market Selloff Run Its Course?

Since the trade disputes started in January, emerging market indices have been getting hit pretty hard and haven’t gotten the bounce back rallies the more developed markets have seen. The selling stems from a stronger dollar and the concern that less trade will hamper the emerging economies. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE: EEM) has dropped from the $52 ...

Read More »

Second Quarter Index and Sector Recap

Friday marked the end of the second quarter and the half-way point of the year. With that in mind, we thought it would be worth looking at the index and sector performance from the second quarter and the first half of the year as well. After a very choppy and back and forth first quarter, the second quarter saw more ...

Read More »

China’s Central Bank Deviates From Course

The People’s Bank of China, the central bank of China, had been tracking the United States’ Federal Reserve when it came to rate adjustments. When the Fed hiked rates, the PBOC hiked rates. But the PBOC didn’t hike rates two weeks ago when the Fed made its latest 0.25% bump to the Fed Funds rate. Why did they deviate from ...

Read More »

Newton’s Third Law at Work in the Trade Dispute

When Harley Davidson (NYSE: HOG) announced that they were moving some production overseas due to the proposed tariffs from the European Union, President Trump tweeted that he was surprised by the move. He also criticized the company and went so far as to say that it would be “the beginning of the end” for the company. It really shouldn’t come ...

Read More »