Author Archives: Rick Pendergraft

The Landscape has Changed for the Fed’s Rate Path

Over the years I have heard many different sources, from economics professors to Fed Chairmen, say that the Federal Reserve doesn’t pay attention to the stock market when it comes to deciding rate policy. I think we all know better than that. When the Fed stepped in and started lowering rates at the end of 2007, you can bet that ...

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Wall Street has a Trust Issue with President Trump

In poker, when a player has a habit that indicates that they are bluffing or another one that indicates they have a strong hand, it is called a tell. In criminal law when a criminal uses a certain method to commit the same crime over and over, they call it an M.O.—or modus operandi. Right now, Wall Street seems to ...

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Don’t Blame General Motors, They’re Being Responsible

General Motors announced on Tuesday that it would close seven factories and cut its workforce by 14,000 people. The announcement was met with criticism from President Trump, Senators Sherrod Brown and Rob Portman, and many others. Of the plants that are due to close, four are in the United States and one is in Canada. While politicians can criticize the ...

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Current Sector Statuses and What They Can Tell Us

With the sharp selling we saw on Monday and Tuesday, some analysts and institutions were declaring that we are in a bear market while others were still saying that we are in a correction. Personally, I don’t really care to waste time on such a distinction. I would rather try to figure out where we are going next and how ...

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The Next Bear Market May Be the Most Anticipated in History

I have been trumpeting a cautious tone for most of 2018 with concerns about the stock market and whether or not the bull market would continue. I have laid out a number of indicators that support my cautious stance—the jump in the yield on 10-year treasuries, consumer confidence being too high, investor sentiment being too optimistic, etc. If you haven’t ...

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I Wouldn’t Look for Oil to Move Too Much Lower

One of the big stories in the investment world over the last week or so has been the sharp decline in oil prices. The commodity has seen prices fall for 12 straight days and that is longest losing streak ever. There is also a weekly losing streak of six straight weeks, but that isn’t a record. While the financial news ...

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Don’t Get Too Excited About the Post-Midterm Jump

The overall market jumped sharply higher on Wednesday after the results of the midterm election results were known. Some analysts were speculating that the jump was due to the Republicans retaining control of the Senate while others were speculating it is because the Democrats took control of the House. Personally, I think the reason for the big jump was simply ...

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