Author Archives: Rick Pendergraft

The Next Bear Market May Be the Most Anticipated in History

I have been trumpeting a cautious tone for most of 2018 with concerns about the stock market and whether or not the bull market would continue. I have laid out a number of indicators that support my cautious stance—the jump in the yield on 10-year treasuries, consumer confidence being too high, investor sentiment being too optimistic, etc. If you haven’t ...

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I Wouldn’t Look for Oil to Move Too Much Lower

One of the big stories in the investment world over the last week or so has been the sharp decline in oil prices. The commodity has seen prices fall for 12 straight days and that is longest losing streak ever. There is also a weekly losing streak of six straight weeks, but that isn’t a record. While the financial news ...

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Don’t Get Too Excited About the Post-Midterm Jump

The overall market jumped sharply higher on Wednesday after the results of the midterm election results were known. Some analysts were speculating that the jump was due to the Republicans retaining control of the Senate while others were speculating it is because the Democrats took control of the House. Personally, I think the reason for the big jump was simply ...

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S&P 500 Earnings Report Card: Mid-Season Results

We are just over halfway through the third quarter earnings season and, as is always the case, there have been positive and negative surprises. But overall, how are companies doing? Through October 30, 279 members of the S&P 500 had reported. Of those reporting, 77% had beaten their EPS estimates, 9% had matched, and 14% had missed. The 77% beating ...

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October’s Downturn in Stocks Suggests We Are in Risk-Off Mode

October was an ugly month for stock indices around the world and the domestic ones were no exception. The four main U.S. indices all dropped significantly, and eight of the 10 main sectors moved lower. The few sectors and asset classes that moved higher in October are all considered “defensive” investments. Looking at the indices first, we see that the ...

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Think You’re Having a Bad Week? Jeff Bezos has lost over $20 Billion in the Last Five Days

When Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) reported earnings last Thursday evening, the company disappointed investors when its revenue fell short of analysts’ estimates and the company issued a fourth-quarter outlook that was below analysts’ expectations. Since the earnings report the stock is down almost 16% as I write this. The stock dropped 7.8% on Friday, it dropped another 6.3% on Monday, and ...

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